FIFA World Cup 2026 — Model Predictions

We rate all 48 World Cup teams using a model built on three inputs: current FIFA ranking points, recent international form (last 24 months, weighted so recent results count more), and World Cup history. Those ratings drive our match predictions, and a full tournament simulation produces the probabilities below.

The table is sorted by estimated win probability. Model is our ranking; Market is the bookmaker consensus. Where they differ by 3+ places you will see a ▲ green arrow (our model rates higher than the market) or a ▼ red arrow (market rates higher than our model) -- these are the teams worth examining for potential value.

Tournament Win Probabilities

#	Team	Win %	Final %	SF %	Qualify %	Model	Market
1	Spain Group H	21.2%	45.8%	45.8%	74.2%	1	1
2	France Group I	18.0%	42.6%	42.6%	81.4%	2	2
3	Argentina Group J	15.4%	42.1%	42.1%	70.0%	3	5
4	Morocco Group C	8.0%	27.1%	27.1%	66.6%	4	▲ 12
5	England Group L	7.8%	27.4%	27.4%	72.6%	5	3
6	Germany Group E	4.7%	22.7%	22.7%	71.3%	6	7
7	Portugal Group K	4.3%	21.0%	21.0%	63.9%	7	6
8	Netherlands Group F	3.0%	14.1%	14.1%	48.5%	8	8
9	Brazil Group C	2.6%	16.0%	16.0%	54.5%	9	▼ 4
10	Croatia Group L	1.5%	13.4%	13.4%	57.1%	10	▲ 17
11	Senegal Group I	1.8%	12.5%	12.5%	53.1%	11	▲ 17
12	Belgium Group G	1.5%	13.5%	13.5%	58.0%	12	10
13	Mexico Group A	3.0%	16.7%	16.7%	69.7%	13	▲ 16
14	Japan Group F	0.9%	9.6%	9.6%	39.3%	14	12
15	Switzerland Group B	0.5%	8.1%	8.1%	54.5%	15	17
16	Colombia Group K	0.7%	6.3%	6.3%	39.5%	16	▼ 10
17	USA Group D	1.6%	10.4%	10.4%	53.1%	17	▼ 14
18	Australia Group D	0.5%	6.3%	6.3%	40.0%	18	▲ 33
19	Algeria Group J	0.4%	5.3%	5.3%	29.4%	19	▲ 34
20	Austria Group J	0.6%	4.7%	4.7%	29.4%	20	▲ 23
21	Uruguay Group H	0.3%	4.6%	4.6%	30.7%	21	▼ 14
22	South Korea Group A	0.3%	4.0%	4.0%	46.7%	22	▲ 30
23	Turkey Group D	0.3%	3.9%	3.9%	32.9%	23	22
24	Iran Group G	0.2%	4.1%	4.1%	41.4%	24	▲ 36
25	Norway Group I	0.4%	2.5%	2.5%	26.6%	25	▼ 9
26	Ecuador Group E	0.2%	2.9%	2.9%	32.1%	26	▼ 20
27	Egypt Group G	0.1%	2.1%	2.1%	35.2%	27	28
28	Panama Group L	0.0%	1.5%	1.5%	22.2%	28	▲ 36
29	Ivory Coast Group E	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	27.3%	29	▼ 26
30	Canada Group B	0.1%	3.5%	3.5%	40.9%	30	▼ 27
31	Tunisia Group F	0.1%	0.8%	0.8%	11.8%	31	▲ 35
32	Paraguay Group D	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	13.8%	32	▼ 25
33	Uzbekistan Group K	0.0%	0.6%	0.6%	10.1%	33	▲ 36
34	DR Congo Group K	0.0%	0.9%	0.9%	9.4%	34	36
35	Sweden Group F	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	7.8%	35	▼ 20
36	Czech Republic Group A	0.0%	0.8%	0.8%	18.2%	36	▼ 28
37	Scotland Group C	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	9.9%	37	▼ 24
38	Iraq Group I	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	7.0%	38	36
39	Jordan Group J	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	4.5%	39	▼ 36
40	South Africa Group A	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	8.8%	40	▼ 36
41	Qatar Group B	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.5%	41	▼ 36
42	Saudi Arabia Group H	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	7.9%	42	▼ 36
43	Bosnia & Herzegovina Group B	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.4%	43	▼ 31
44	Cape Verde Group H	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	3.4%	44	▼ 36
45	Ghana Group L	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	2.6%	45	▼ 32
46	Curaçao Group E	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.4%	46	▼ 36
47	New Zealand Group G	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	47	▼ 36
48	Haiti Group C	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	48	▼ 36

Predicted Group Standings

Teams ordered by model rank within each group. Qualify % shows the probability of finishing in the top 2 (or as one of the 8 best third-placed teams).

Group A

Mexico

69.7%

Qualify

South Korea

46.7%

Qualify

Czech Republic

18.2%

3rd place

South Africa

8.8%